{"id":190,"date":"2019-08-28T19:32:42","date_gmt":"2019-08-28T19:32:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/?p=190"},"modified":"2024-07-08T17:58:14","modified_gmt":"2024-07-08T17:58:14","slug":"gold-the-easy-part-is-now-behind-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/gold-the-easy-part-is-now-behind-us\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold \u2013 The \u201cEasy\u201d Part Is Now Behind Us"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>By Peter Grandich  <\/em><br>August 27, 2019 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Back in late summer of 2018,<strong>&nbsp;I made a decision that\ngold, and related investment vehicles, was a much better choice for capital\ngains opportunity than both general equities and the overall U.S. stock market\ngoing forward.<\/strong>&nbsp;I chose to hold just one general equity and to instead\nown gold, numerous gold ETFs and one individual mining stocks as my personal\nportfolio. Gold was on either side of $1,200 during that timeframe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since then, I continued to suggest gold, and those related\nitems, as my personal choice over the U.S. stock market. As of now, it has\nproven to be a much better choice with gold up 30% and with gold-related\nvehicles up an average 100% or more. This contrasts, in the same period, with\nthe flat-to-down general stock market. Gold and gold-related items have even\noutperformed general equities just in 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While many of the remaining \u2018gold bears\u2019 and those who claim\nthat \u201cgold\u2019s rise is basically behind us\u201d, they are mostly&nbsp;<strong>the same\nfolks<\/strong>&nbsp;who said the same at $1,200 and who also claimed that gold was\ngoing under a $1,000 too. Words like \u201c<strong>relic\u201d<\/strong>&nbsp;were common in their\ndescription of gold, and many of them even claimed that bitcoin and\ncryptocurrencies were the \u2018new gold\u2019.&nbsp;<strong>How\u2019s that working out for them?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While I had a bias in favor of gold for the first 30 or so years of my career in and around the financial arena, I have had no such bias now for the last 5+ years. I neither promote investment vehicles that benefit from my stance nor am I employed by anyone who would benefit from my bullish talk on gold. My motivation has simply been 100% for personal profit motives that have led my viewpoints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When I was in the \u2018soothsayer racket\u2019, we were mainly as good as\nour last call. Having learned to eat a lot of broken glass from my days of\ncarrying around a crystal ball, I hope to remain fairly humble despite having\none heck of a year over these past 12 months or so. And, I also have come to\nlearn, sometimes the hard way, that resting on one\u2019s laurels may stroke the\nego, but it does nothing for the pocketbook going forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, with that in mind, here\u2019s my latest observations of gold and\ngold-related vehicles, keeping in mind that I, too, put my pants on one leg at\na time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s been my opinion that&nbsp;<strong>gold would have 3 stages<\/strong>&nbsp;to\ngo through:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Phase 1 was to break<br>and stay above a resistance area that had lasted for years between $1,350 \u2013<br>$1,400.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Once it achieved that,<br>I felt that Phase 2 would see gold pop to around $1,500. After a period of<br>time, I felt that area would become \u2018a line in the sand\u2019 for the many gold<br>bears and for the\u00a0<strong>\u201cDon\u2019t Worry Be Happy Crowd\u201d<\/strong>, who view gold<br>as\u00a0<strong>\u2018kryptonite\u2019<\/strong>\u00a0to their punch bowl that has maintained<br>financial assets as the only perceived game in town.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Once these bears and<br>weak-kneed bulls had run their course, gold would begin a Phase 3, which would<br>be its longest and most-volatile. However, this phase is where gold makes its<br>biggest move to a new, nominal all-time high within 3 years or less.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Given Friday\u2019s run-up and this week\u2019s follow-through, it appears\nthat Phase 3 has begun despite gold being very overbought on some technical\ncharts. One of the very few traders that made money trading markets over the\nyears (and I\u2019m not one of them), told me late Friday that I should not to be\ntoo concerned how overbought gold was technically. He advised me that, in the\nearly stages of a mega bull market, it\u2019s not uncommon for much-longer periods\nof being overbought. He noted that it is this phase that leads many, who never\ngot on board early, to remain waiting for a major pullback, or correction, and\neither miss the play entirely or enter near the end of the run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He\u2019s got something there as I was considering putting some\ntrades back on that had been most profitable to me multiple times during the\nlast year, but felt the overbought condition could lead to a test of at least\nthe $1,480 support area and therefore I should wait. It appears that \u201che who\nhesitates is lost\u201d when it comes to gold now. I do still have a very large core\nposition that I will not consider selling until we\u2019re well into the third\nphase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, you may be thinking,<strong>&nbsp;\u201cOkay former whiz kid, what\u2019s next for gold?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Having first grudgingly accepting, and now gracefully\nrecognizing, that the only person who has any real idea of the future is\nAlmighty God, please understand, at my very best, I\u2019m simply making an educated\nguess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s begin by remembering&nbsp;<strong>gold is hated and\/or ignored\nby most of the financial services industry as it\u2019s like \u2018kryptonite\u2019 to\nfinancial assets.<\/strong>&nbsp;So, you\u2019 re just never going to hear the financial\nmedia, or those who make a living from selling financial assets,&nbsp;<strong>expound\non the merits of gold ownership \u2013 period<\/strong>. &nbsp;This alone will keep many\ninvestors from ever owning gold at any time, since most novice investors, and\nsadly, many so-called \u2018professionals\u2019 are crowd-followers and they are unable\nto act unless it seems that\u2019s what the majority is doing. I had found that\nmost, who attended the conferences around the world where I had spoken, came,\nnot to learn, but to get confirmation of what they already believed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But also, be aware that there\u2019s always going to be a group of\npro-gold believers, who have been bullish on it for years \u2013 if not decades.\nMany times because gold is what they sell or what they do is influenced by the\nprice of gold. That group, once known as the&nbsp;<strong>\u2018hard asset crowd\u2019<\/strong>&nbsp;has\nbeen decimated by many factors, and at best,&nbsp;<strong>is a shell of their former\nselves.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold itself was in a trading range for years, and during that time, the industry that looks for it, mines it and also sells it in different ways, all fell on some pretty tough times. This is actually a bullish factor now but try telling that to those who went&nbsp;<strong>from gold to pot to cryptocurrencies,<\/strong>&nbsp;trying to make a living. But again, as it always does, adversity creates opportunity. The lack of finding numerous major new gold deposits for several years now, and even with $1,500+ gold you\u2019re not going to see a bunch of new supply come into the market overnight, and gives credence to the argument of&nbsp;<strong>\u201cPeak Gold\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, the supply side of gold, is not expected to become a negative anywhere on the horizon. But just like it takes two to tango, one also needs a bullish demand side to go along with a bullish supply argument.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While I\u2019ve been absent from the metals and mining industry since\n2014, I still kept an eye on it and, of course, with both my hands holding onto\nmy wallet. While watching that which can now only be described as a<strong>&nbsp;highly-driven\ntechnology casino,<\/strong>&nbsp;the U.S. stock market was once was a place where\npeople actually bought stock to be part-owners of a company. &nbsp;But now,\nmany playing that market don\u2019t even know what the company does or even cares.\nToday, investment decisions are made for quick profits generated from anything\nthat seems to be moving with momentum. And boy, does gold now have that going\nfor it. So, whether it\u2019s a headline-driven algorithmic computer program or some\n29-year-old day trader who thinks that mathematics will make him rich, neither\ncan regularly beat the stock market and will learn like the rest of us\n\u201cold-timers\u201d,&nbsp; that only dishonesty or a tremendous amount of luck ever\nallowed it to be beaten on a regular basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Believe it or not, the easy part is now over. While gold still\nhas hundreds of dollars more of upside potential, it\u2019s going to be more\nvolatile and harder to hold on to, then it was the last 12 months.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the key factors, that I anticipate will drive gold in the coming weeks and months, is something, quite frankly, that I still can\u2019t get my hands around \u2013&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2019\/08\/21\/negative-yielding-debt-poses-major-risks-for-investors.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain\" target=\"_blank\">negative interest rates.<\/a>&nbsp;Forgive me, but&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/negative-rates-coming-savings-050005475.html\" target=\"_blank\">when I started<\/a>&nbsp;in this business 35 years ago,&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2019\/08\/21\/how-negative-interest-rates-screw-up-the-economy\/\" target=\"_blank\">I was given<\/a>&nbsp;10-year CDs at 15% to use as a&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-08-25\/history-being-made-negative-rates-fake-markets-imminent-daily-liquidity-crisis\" target=\"_blank\">door opener to build<\/a>&nbsp;new clients. Very few&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-08-27\/yields-are-too-low-bond-kings-embrace-same-strategy-shun-corporate-debt\" target=\"_blank\">investors were interested<\/a>&nbsp;because it wasn\u2019t too&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-08-26\/lacalle-day-reckoning-looms-global-economy\" target=\"_blank\">long ago that rates<\/a>&nbsp;hit 20% and many felt 15% wasn\u2019t high enough. Mind you, at banks, they also threw in a toaster with their CDs.<strong>While I can\u2019t imagine that we will need to pay a bank soon just to hold our money<\/strong>, which I wonder will the roles be reversed and we get to ask them for a credit check and references now, I do know the gold bears argument of the cost of holding gold has disappeared \u2013 not that it was a stirring one for starters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another bullish factor for gold is the inevitable return to some\nform of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/the-fed-needs-to-radically-change-policy-and-start-printing-money-2019-08-21?mod=mw_theo_homepage\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">QE-slash printing funny money<\/a>here\nand abroad.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-08-26\/things-will-never-be-same-again-here-are-20-questions-central-banks-admit-defeat\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">If QE 1 two and three didn\u2019t work,\nmaybe QE 29<\/a>&nbsp;will end up doing the trick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Throw in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-08-23\/unprecedented-shocking-proposal-boes-mark-carney-urges-replacing-dollar-libra\">currency interventions<\/a>, nut jobs in North\nKorea, and Iran and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-08-26\/it-may-just-detonate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">numerous geopolitical<\/a>&nbsp;issues&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2019\/08\/26\/yales-stephen-roach-says-trump-is-becoming-unhinged-on-china.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-08-26\/ferguson-whole-world-playing-massive-multiplayer-game-chicken\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">abroad,<\/a>&nbsp;and of\ncourse,<a href=\"http:\/\/petergrandich.com\/2019\/04\/30\/the-last-great-bull-market-for-my-generation\/\">&nbsp;my belief that we won\u2019t see another major equity\nbull market in my lifetime,<\/a>and one has&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2019\/08\/26\/lehman-like-drop-nomuras-masanari-takada-warns-it-could-happen-in-a-week.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">lots of good reasons<\/a>&nbsp;to\nthink gold still has a way to go.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019d like to wrap-up by noting two things related to gold and my past history in the metals and mining industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First off, for years, I, and a small minority of folks,\nincluding the good people at&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.gata.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">GATA<\/a>, had argued that gold was being\nmanipulated.&nbsp;<strong>We were mocked, ridiculed and cast off as kooks.<\/strong>&nbsp;No\none did it more than a man named Jon Nadler, as a person with whom I personally\nhad battled. Nadler, who forgive me Lord,&nbsp;<strong>was, and likely still is, a\nnincompoop<\/strong>. Well,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-08-20\/jpmorgan-spoofer-pleads-guilty-gold-manipulation-faces-11-years-jail\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a series of charges and convictions<\/a>&nbsp;for&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/deutsche-bank-lawsuit-metals-idUSL2N17H1IA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">gold manipulation<\/a>&nbsp;has\noccurred recently and I have yet to receive any \u201cI guess you were right,\nGrandich\u201d emails. I assume that neither did GATA, who were on the absolute\nfrontlines in this battle. I\u2019ll take satisfaction that we saw something\ncritical most others didn\u2019t recognize or refused to recognize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, I had given some thought about getting my feet wet\nagain by doing some work in the metals and mining game. Thankfully, the good\nLord made it clear where I\u2019m supposed to be. But there were two videos that I\nhave below in this posting,&nbsp;<strong>which are not only just hysterically funny,\nbut also a good portrayal of what much of the promotion arm of junior resources\nwas like when I was in it.<\/strong>&nbsp;These videos, and the old Mark Twain saying\nthat&nbsp;<strong>\u201ca gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing over it\u201d<\/strong>,\nshould forever keep me from seriously entertaining going backwards in my life\nagain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In summary, I would like to say to those who did what I did a\nyear ago, \u201ccongrats\u201d. I do think gold is now in its most volatile phase now\nand, while no longer cheap, has enough momentum now to get to my ultimate\ntarget of a new, nominal new high within in 3 years or less. But the fact that\nthe public is finally awakening to gold, suggests we\u2019re likely to see some\nsignificant setbacks along the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regarding mining shares, please keep in mind even if gold stops here and just stays between $1,500 \u2013 $1,600, there are going to be a lot of happy gold mining CEOs, who were looking at living off $1,250 gold but now have $300 or so more heading mostly to their bottom line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-large-font-size\"><strong>___________________<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Peter Grandich August 27, 2019 Back in late summer of 2018,&nbsp;I made a decision that gold, and related investment vehicles, was a much better choice for capital gains opportunity than both general equities and the overall U.S. stock market going forward.&nbsp;I chose to hold just one general equity and to instead own gold, numerous &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/gold-the-easy-part-is-now-behind-us\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Gold \u2013 The \u201cEasy\u201d Part Is Now Behind Us&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-190","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v20.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold \u2013 The \u201cEasy\u201d Part Is Now Behind Us - Gold Silver Desk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/gold-the-easy-part-is-now-behind-us\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold \u2013 The \u201cEasy\u201d Part Is Now Behind Us\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Peter Grandich August 27, 2019 Back in late summer of 2018,&nbsp;I made a decision that gold, and related investment vehicles, was a much better choice for capital gains opportunity than both general equities and the overall U.S. stock market going forward.&nbsp;I chose to hold just one general equity and to instead own gold, numerous &hellip; 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