{"id":219,"date":"2019-09-18T19:34:19","date_gmt":"2019-09-18T19:34:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/?p=219"},"modified":"2024-07-08T17:59:34","modified_gmt":"2024-07-08T17:59:34","slug":"jim-rickards-says-world-is-unprepared-for-next-financial-crisis-the-future-is-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/jim-rickards-says-world-is-unprepared-for-next-financial-crisis-the-future-is-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"Jim Rickards says world is unprepared for next financial crisis, the future is gold"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>By&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/smallcaps.com.au\/author\/lorna-nicholas\/\"><strong><em>Lorna Nicholas<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jim Rickards<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table aligncenter\"><table><tbody><tr><td>\n  \n  \n   \n    \n    <strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Ok73IoKxCss&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/youtu.be\/Ok73IoKxCss<\/a>\n    (Click here for Rickards Interview)<\/em><\/strong>\n    \n   \n  \n  \n  <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Renowned author, <\/strong>lawyer, economist and finance expert James \u201cJim\u201d Rickards\nhas forecast the US dollar will falter in the wake of a new financial crisis\nthat may be closer to reality than people think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The expert pointing out central banks still haven\u2019t recovered from the previous crisis, while Russia and China have been buying up gold at unprecedented levels over the past decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking with Small Caps, Mr Rickards said the global economy is still wading through the 2008 global financial crisis, with interest rates remaining low and central banks unable to boost their books to previous levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He pointed out the world was completely \u201cunprepared for the next crisis\u201d, which will be far worse than the previous two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Previous crises<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Mr Rickards, the\n1997-1998 Asian financial crisis could\u2019ve brought the world to its knees if\nWall Street banks hadn\u2019t pulled together to bail out US hedge fund Long-Term\nCapital, which was about to collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The crisis spread throughout the world and hit the US causing Dow Jones industrial average to record its biggest point fall in history by October 1997 \u2013 triggering a trading suspension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, disaster was averted after Long-Term Capital received a US$3.75 billion bail-out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Had it not been bailed-out, a cascade of secondary bank bankruptcies would\u2019ve ensued with numerous majors around the world including Deutsche Bank, UBS, and HSBC reporting they had either contributed to the bail-out or written off hundreds of millions in losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The following 2007-2008 global financial crisis was triggered by the US subprime mortgage market and excessive risk taking by banks with their lending practices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Falling prey to the crisis was Lehman Brothers which went bankrupt and caused the Dow Jones to topple to its lowest in seven years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this bail-out, it was left to central banks to prevent financial Armageddon, with the US Federal Reserve taking its balance sheet from US$800 billion to over US$4.2 trillion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US Government took over flailing banks Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, while others including Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America received hundreds of billions in US government bailouts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Who\u2019s going to bail out the central banks?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With another financial crisis\nimminent, Mr Rickards posed the question: who is going to bail out the central\nbanks?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cYour only alternatives are turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to basically bail out the world although that is a slow and difficult process.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the IMF did bail out the central banks, the process could take six months to a year.<br><br> Additionally, Mr Rickards said there were numerous other challenges to an IMF bail-out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Rickards believes<\/strong> the next financial crisis will dwarf 2008.<br> For an IMF bail-out to occur, it would require 85% approval from all member countries.<br><br>\u201cIf you have a 15% plus 1% blocking power vote then it doesn\u2019t happen.\u201d<br><br>He added that the US was the only country in the world with a 16% voting power.<br><br>However, he pointed out a small coalition such as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) nations and Venezuela could collectively block any bail out action or put conditions on it.<br><br>And that condition may well be that the US dollar is no longer the global reserve currency.<br><br>Mr Rickards said some people expect the US Federal Reserve to jump to the rescue again in the next financial crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhat are they going to do if a crisis hit tomorrow? Go to US$5 trillion, US$6 trillion?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr Rickards said the other alternative was to shut down the banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAnd that\u2019s what I expect will happen. They\u2019ll close exchanges, close banks, close ATMs, freeze accounts.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When people say that will \u201cnever happen\u201d, Mr Rickards explained it has happened many times before including Cypress, Greece and Argentina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He added it also happened in the US in 1933, when US President Franklin D Roosevelt ordered every bank to close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bank shutdown lasted eight days, but Mr Rickards said no-one knew how long the closure would be and it could easily have been a month-to-two months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He pointed out another financial shutdown occurred in the US in 1914 when World War One broke out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe New York Stock Exchange was closed for five months \u2013 from July 1914 to December 1914.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>What does the future look like in the next crisis?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr Rickards was quick to point out he doesn\u2019t foresee a dystopian future or an end of the world scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, he said he did expect the crisis will begin with \u201cenormous social unrest\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Elaborating on this statement, Mr Rickards noted the veneer of civilisation is \u201cpaper thin\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe saw this in August 2005 with Hurricane Katrina in the US where the city of New Orleans was cut off and order broke down within days.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cBy the second day, people were becoming desperate for food and water. By the third day, violence had broken out. You have vigilantes, looters, and the national guard moving in.\u201d<br><br><strong>\u201cCivilized behavior<\/strong> only lasts about three days in the absence of reliable water, food, electricity and all the things we take for granted.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a situation where banks are closed and people can\u2019t access their money, Mr Rickards said social disorder will break out \u201cquite quickly\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This will be followed by a breakdown of internal systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThis is how complex civilizations collapse.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt isn\u2019t a barbarian invasion, but an internal collapse, because of too much bureaucracy, too much taxation, and complexity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He said the social disorder will be most acute in major metropolitan areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To survive this new system, Mr Rickards anticipates communities will shift to a semi-barter system where skills are traded and silver, or gold if you have it, can be used to buy food and other essentials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Fall of the US dollar and rise of gold<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the crisis unfolds, the US dollar is expected to become worthless \u2013 with gold the primary valuable commodity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even then, Mr Rickards said, in his opinion, it was safer to own mostly physical bullion rather than gold futures, options, un-allocated gold contracts and ETFs etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He pointed out there is not enough physical gold in warehouses to meet these paper claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Slightly different was owning shares in gold mining stocks. \u201cThere is gold there, but it doesn\u2019t belong to you, it belongs to the miner.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When looking at investing in gold mining companies and explorers, Mr Rickards said just as important as the geology, location, costs, grade and processing methods is the management team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSome gold companies have great management. They know exactly what they are doing and they have a track record of controlling costs etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOther gold companies \u2013 some of them are frauds. Some may not be frauds but have poor management. So, obviously you don\u2019t want to be involved in those.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Gold looks to new future<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking with Small Caps on his\nprediction gold will exceed US$10,000\/oz, Mr Rickards said people may look at\nhim like he is crazy, but the forecast is based on \u201crigorous analysis\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The number has been arrived at via several scenarios including returning the international monetary system to some form of gold standard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He said there is definitely enough gold to underpin the global monetary system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s just a question of price.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAt US$1,500\/oz where it is today \u2013 there isn\u2019t enough gold, the gold we have at US$1,500\/oz, you would drastically have to reduce the money supply by over 50% to maintain that parity of gold to money.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cBut you could take the same amount of gold and reprice it at US$10,000\/oz and now suddenly the same gold supports a much larger money supply.\u201d<br><br>He pointed out China, the US, Japan and Europe account for more than 80% of global gross domestic product (GDP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Combined, these countries\u2019 money supply is about US$24 trillion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf you said we want 40% gold backing (and historically that\u2019s a pretty high number), 40% of US$24 trillion is US$9.63 trillion.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is about 33,000t of gold in the world \u2013 not counting private ownership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf you take 33,000t and divide it by US$9.6 trillion, which is how much you have to back, the gold price comes to about US$10,000\/oz.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSo, when I say that number, it is not pulled out of thin air, it is actually the implied non deflationary price of gold to have any kind of gold standard,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another way of reaching the US$10,000\/oz price is by looking at gold\u2019s previous performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There have been two previous great bull markets for gold.<br><br>The first started in 1971 and continued through to 1980 where the gold price ran up more than 2,000% from about US$35\/oz to around US$900\/oz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the second bull market, gold ran up almost 700% between 1999 and 2011 \u2013 rising from US$250\/oz to US$1,900\/oz.<br><br>According to Mr Rickards, we are in the third bull market which started on 16 December 2015 when it was at a low of US$1,050\/oz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Rickards sees<\/strong> the gold price reaching US$10,000 per ounce in the next bull run. He said the current price is up about 50% from this low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When looking at the huge percentage leaps of previous bull runs, Mr Rickards said the current one had a long way to go.<br><br>\u201cThis will run for years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you apply the previous percentage runs to the current bull market, Mr Rickards said you\u2019d exceed US$14,000\/oz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThese are very simple calculations that are historically rooted.\u201d<br><br>\u201cNumbers like US$10,000\/oz and US$15,000\/oz are not pie in the sky.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr Rickards added if the upcoming financial crisis tips us into a world where there is a complete currency collapse, then gold won\u2019t even have a price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt will just be a case of can you get it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Axis of gold<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In anticipation of such a scenario, many countries have been scooping up gold at rapid rates \u2013 with central banks buying record amounts of the precious metal in the first half of 2019 alone.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since 2009, Russia has tripled its gold reserves from about 600t to almost 2,300t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cChina has more than tripled its gold reserves also from 600t to 2,000t. They probably have more off the books, we don\u2019t know how much, but could just say they\u2019ve tripled it and you are on safe ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIran has acquired well over 100t. They are not transparent. We don\u2019t know the exact amount but that\u2019s a good estimate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Collectively, central banks have been hoarding gold since 2010, with buy ups increasing even more in recent years and even months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other countries making big gold purchases include Poland, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Mexico and the Philippines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He has called this movement the new <strong>\u201cAxis of Gold\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at what most of these countries have in common is they are also targets of US sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cRussia has been sanctioned for its operations in Ukraine and Crimea; China has been sanctioned for theft of intellectual property, limits on foreign investment and unfair trade practices, etcetera; North Korea has been sanctioned for weapons; and Iran has been sanctioned for its nuclear enrichment program etcetera.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Mr Rickards, the US\u2019 financial war on these countries effectively suffocates their economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr Rickards said this form of warfare works \u201cbut the question is how long a country is going to sit there and take it\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAnd the answer is not much longer.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He said China and Russia could feasibly implement a permissioned digital currency system that is backed by gold and based on blockchain technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Being a permissioned system, countries would need approval to join.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf the permissions committee doesn\u2019t let you in, then you\u2019re on the sidewalk.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He said digital coin tokens would be used to keep track of transactions and the balance settled with physical gold once or twice a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhat\u2019s missing from that? The US dollar. There is no dollar at all.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And if you think this is a fictitious scenario. Think again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr Rickards pointed out it was already underway.<br><br>\u201cThe gold is being acquired \u2013 this is a foundational step. The technology is out there, it isn\u2019t that difficult to do.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"><strong>\u201cThis could come quite quickly and unexpectedly.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-large-font-size\"><strong>___________________<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By&nbsp;Lorna Nicholas Jim Rickards https:\/\/youtu.be\/Ok73IoKxCss (Click here for Rickards Interview) Renowned author, lawyer, economist and finance expert James \u201cJim\u201d Rickards has forecast the US dollar will falter in the wake of a new financial crisis that may be closer to reality than people think. The expert pointing out central banks still haven\u2019t recovered from the &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/jim-rickards-says-world-is-unprepared-for-next-financial-crisis-the-future-is-gold\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Jim Rickards says world is unprepared for next financial crisis, the future is gold&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v20.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Jim Rickards says world is unprepared for next financial crisis, the future is gold - Gold Silver Desk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/jim-rickards-says-world-is-unprepared-for-next-financial-crisis-the-future-is-gold\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jim Rickards says world is unprepared for next financial crisis, the future is gold\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By&nbsp;Lorna Nicholas Jim Rickards https:\/\/youtu.be\/Ok73IoKxCss (Click here for Rickards Interview) Renowned author, lawyer, economist and finance expert James \u201cJim\u201d Rickards has forecast the US dollar will falter in the wake of a new financial crisis that may be closer to reality than people think. 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The expert pointing out central banks still haven\u2019t recovered from the &hellip; Continue reading \"Jim Rickards says world is unprepared for next financial crisis, the future is gold\"","og_url":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/jim-rickards-says-world-is-unprepared-for-next-financial-crisis-the-future-is-gold\/","og_site_name":"Gold Silver Desk","article_published_time":"2019-09-18T19:34:19+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-07-08T17:59:34+00:00","author":"david@goldsilverdesk.com","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"david@goldsilverdesk.com","Est. reading time":"9 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/jim-rickards-says-world-is-unprepared-for-next-financial-crisis-the-future-is-gold\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/jim-rickards-says-world-is-unprepared-for-next-financial-crisis-the-future-is-gold\/"},"author":{"name":"david@goldsilverdesk.com","@id":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/7985cc77bfb2b705aec4b5dd3e07c748"},"headline":"Jim Rickards says world is unprepared for next financial crisis, the future is gold","datePublished":"2019-09-18T19:34:19+00:00","dateModified":"2024-07-08T17:59:34+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/jim-rickards-says-world-is-unprepared-for-next-financial-crisis-the-future-is-gold\/"},"wordCount":2045,"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/jim-rickards-says-world-is-unprepared-for-next-financial-crisis-the-future-is-gold\/","url":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/jim-rickards-says-world-is-unprepared-for-next-financial-crisis-the-future-is-gold\/","name":"Jim Rickards says world is unprepared for next financial crisis, the future is gold - Gold Silver Desk","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/#website"},"datePublished":"2019-09-18T19:34:19+00:00","dateModified":"2024-07-08T17:59:34+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/7985cc77bfb2b705aec4b5dd3e07c748"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/jim-rickards-says-world-is-unprepared-for-next-financial-crisis-the-future-is-gold\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/jim-rickards-says-world-is-unprepared-for-next-financial-crisis-the-future-is-gold\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/jim-rickards-says-world-is-unprepared-for-next-financial-crisis-the-future-is-gold\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Jim Rickards says world is unprepared for next financial crisis, the future is gold"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/#website","url":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/","name":"Gold Silver Desk","description":"News &amp; 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