{"id":653,"date":"2025-01-06T21:32:28","date_gmt":"2025-01-06T21:32:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/?p=653"},"modified":"2025-01-06T21:32:30","modified_gmt":"2025-01-06T21:32:30","slug":"strong-majority-of-retail-traders-expect-gold-to-trade-above-3000-oz-in-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/strong-majority-of-retail-traders-expect-gold-to-trade-above-3000-oz-in-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Strong majority of retail traders expect gold to trade above $3,000\/oz in 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Ernest Hoffman<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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After gaining nearly 30% in 2024 \u2013 outperforming every commodity and all but a handful of assets \u2013\u00a0<\/a>gold prices are still inspiring confidence among many industry experts, while most retail traders see the yellow metal breaking above $3,000 per ounce in 2025.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spot gold kicked off the year hovering around $2,000 per ounce, and the yellow metal dipped as low as $1,992 in mid-February before getting a Valentine’s Day boost back above the 2K level. But it was the end of February that started its steep ascent, as spot gold gained over $60 during the last 2 days of the month and broke above $2,100 on the first trading day of March. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once again, a period of consolidation at elevated levels was followed by a late-month rally that saw gold prices break above $2,200 during the final days of trading, and by mid-April, the yellow metal was drawing close to $2,400 per ounce. But gold traders were not yet ready for these heights, and spot gold slid back below $2,300 at the end of April. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

May brought renewed optimism to metals markets, and on the 16th, spot gold broke decisively through the $2,400 per ounce resistance level. But after topping out near $2,426, gold once again entered another period of consolidation, this one proving to be the longest-lasting of 2024. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But on June 10th, gold once again breached the $2,400 per ounce level, and this time, it found support, whereupon it began its most steady climb of the year, which saw the yellow metal ladder higher through the late summer and early fall to top out at a new all-time high of $2,788.54 per ounce on October 30. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

After a shallow pullback, it was the election of Donald Trump on November 5th that ultimately knocked gold off its pedestal, as the yellow metal fell from $2,743 per ounce on November 4th all the way down to the low $2,560s just 10 days later. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But gold prices found fresh support as the President-elect\u2019s threats of tariffs and trade wars combined with renewed inflation fears once again drove spot prices back above $2,700 per ounce, and even though the precious metal was unable to challenge its October highs, apart from a few dips, support at $2,600 per ounce held through the balance of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The K-News Annual Gold Survey showed strong belief in the yellow metal\u2019s bullish potential on the part of retail traders, while the big banks and industry experts mostly expect continued strength from\u00a0<\/a>gold prices in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

457 retail investors participated in the K-News Annual Gold Survey, with a strong majority of Main Street predicting the yellow metal will set a new all-time high as it trades above three thousand dollars per ounce in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

266 retail traders, fully 58%, expect\u00a0gold\u00a0to trade above $3,000 per ounce level next year, with the current all-time high of $2,788.54 set on October 30, 2024.<\/strong> Another 22%, or 103 Main Street investors, predicted gold prices will trade between $2,800 and $3,000 in 2025, while only 7%, or 30 participants, expect gold to top out somewhere between $2,600 and $2,800. The remaining 58 retail traders, representing 13% of the total, think gold prices will drop back into the $2,400 to $2,600 per ounce range seen in late summer and early fall of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Compared to Main Street, Wall Street analysts, while bullish on gold, have a slightly more cautious view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chantelle Schieven, Head of Research at Capitalight Research,\u00a0told K-News in a recent interview that\u00a0<\/a>gold is continuing to hold its own and the recent consolidation is the first major correction the precious metal has seen in a year.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI am not at all concerned with the volatility we are seeing,\u201d she said. \u201cI think this breather is healthy for the market.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the start of 2024, Schieven was the most bullish analyst among those surveyed by the London Bullion Market Association in its annual forecast. She predicted that\u00a0gold would hit $2,400 an ounce this year, a level it surpassed by nearly $400. Looking ahead, Schieven said she thinks\u00a0gold still has a lot more room to run.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI am still as bullish on\u00a0gold for 2025 as I was for 2024,\u201d she said, but added that her bullishness is tempered with patience as she expects the current consolidation phase to last a few months. She said she sees\u00a0gold trading between $2,500 and $2,700 in the first half of the year, but expects\u00a0gold prices to surpass $3,000 an ounce in the second half of 2025.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Schieven said she expects to see slower economic growth in H2 2025 due to a global trade war and geopolitical uncertainty. She also sees inflation holding above 3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA mild recession with higher inflation should be the perfect environment for\u00a0gold,\u201d she said, adding that there is a strong investment case for\u00a0gold to represent about 10% of an investor\u2019s portfolio.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst at City Index, wrote in their 2025 Gold Fundamental Outlook Preview that while U.S. dollar strength, higher bond yields, equity outperformance, and weaker Asian demand will work against gold this year, a number of factors still support the yellow metal\u2019s journey to $3,000 per ounce in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Razaqzada wrote that a key driver of the 2024 gold rally was the expectation that central banks would lower interest rates as inflation fell, but these expectations have since been reined in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[M]onetary policy is likely to remain tight in early 2025, potentially supporting bond yields and the US dollar\u2014 two factors that often work against gold\u2019s appeal,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher bond yields also have a significant impact on investment demand for the yellow metal, as they raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. \u201cConcurrently, the US dollar\u2019s resilience, bolstered by hawkish central bank policies and surprisingly strong economic data, has made gold relatively more expensive for buyers using weaker currencies,\u201d he said. \u201cThese dynamics could limit gold\u2019s upside potential in the year\u2019s first half.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China and India, the world\u2019s two largest consumer markets for gold, are also facing domestic challenges that could dampen demand for the precious metal, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even setting aside the currency issues, Razaqzada said there are major geopolitical risks to consider. \u201cPotential US tariffs on Chinese goods could exacerbate economic pressures, while increased haven demand stemming from global uncertainties may only partially offset these headwinds,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The recent positive correlation between gold and risk assets also complicates the picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cInvestor sentiment in 2024 leaned heavily toward riskier assets, initially fuelled by rate-cut hopes and then optimism following Trump\u2019s re-election,\u201d Razaqzada said. \u201cBitcoin, XRP, and other cryptocurrencies enjoyed meteoric rises, while equity indices like the S&P 500 and German DAX reached all-time highs. This shift in risk appetite reduced the allure of safe-haven assets like gold towards the end of the year, which typically thrive during periods of economic uncertainty \u2013 although, in more recent years, both gold and the S&P 500 have been going in the same general direction.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTherein lies the problem with gold: can it decouple from risk assets?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But whether equity markets rise or fall, Razaqzada believes that gold\u2019s long-term appeal will remain intact. \u201cInflation continues to erode the purchasing power of fiat currencies, reinforcing gold\u2019s status as a store of value,\u201d he noted. \u201cMoreover, geopolitical tensions\u2014from the Middle East to potential trade wars\u2014could rekindle haven demand, providing a counterbalance to last year\u2019s risk-on sentiment.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question on the minds of many investors is whether the gold price can break the 3k level in this environment. Razaqzada believes that it can.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDespite short-term challenges, a $3,000 gold price target remains feasible,\u201d he said, adding that any corrections or consolidations in the early part of 2025 will likely set the stage for another rally in the second half.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nicky Shiels, Head of Research & Metals Strategy at MKS PAMP, said in her 2025 precious metals outlook that she expects\u00a0gold to trade within a fairly wide range between $2,500 and $3,200 an ounce, with the precious metal\u2019s fate largely determined by the Federal Reserve.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although gold will enjoy solid fundamental support in 2025, Shiels noted that the probability of a bear market is higher than that of a bullish scenario. She sees a 30% chance of gold trading closer to $2,500 an ounce next year as President-elect Donald Trump drives American exceptionalism with pro-growth policies such as tax cuts and deregulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGold prices at $3,000+ or $2,500- depend on whether the Fed is ahead or behind the Trumpflation curve; we expect them to be behind, leading to falling real rates and a softer US$ in the latter half of the year,\u201d she said. \u201cStructurally, the positive feedback loop of high-for-longer inflation, ongoing deglobalization, currency debasement, central bank dedollarization, messy and unpredictable geopolitics, unsustainable global debt paths, and an under-owned general investor community ensures that\u00a0gold remains a safe asset diversifier.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, America-first policies are expected to push consumer prices higher, forcing the Federal Reserve to slow its easing cycle, even as it lags behind the inflation curve. Shiels also cautioned\u00a0gold investors that the new administration\u2019s focus on cryptocurrencies could divert some investors away from the precious metals market next year.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, MKS assigns only a 20% chance of\u00a0gold prices exceeding $3,000 an ounce in 2025.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey wrote in her <\/a>2025 gold forecast that a bullish macro picture combined with continued geopolitical risk and strong sovereign buying will drive gold prices to new highs in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe main question for the gold market now is the pace at which the Fed will ease its policy following Donald Trump\u2019s win in the US presidential election; the inflationary impact of Trump\u2019s policies could lead to fewer rate cuts than previously expected,\u201d Manthey said. \u201cOur US economist, James Knightley, thinks that the US central bank will cut by 25bp again in December \u2013 but the outlook thereafter is less clear, and there is a strong chance of a pause at the January FOMC meeting.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Knightly has lowered his 2025 rate cut forecast from 50bp to 25bp per quarter beginning in Q1 2025, with rates bottoming at 3.75% in Q3 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ING expects central bank gold demand to remain strong during the coming year, which will continue to support historically high gold prices.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCentral banks have continued to boost their gold reserves, although the pace of buying slowed in the third quarter, with high prices deterring some buying,\u201d Manthey wrote. \u201cCentral banks\u2019 healthy appetite for gold is also driven by concerns from countries about Russian-style sanctions on their foreign assets in wake of decisions made by the US and Europe to freeze Russian assets, as well as shifting strategies on currency reserves.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ING\u2019s overall position is that the gold rally has further to run in 2025, and the bank expects prices to average close to this year\u2019s all-time high in Q1-Q2 2025.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe believe gold\u2019s positive momentum will continue in the short to medium term,\u201d Manthey said. \u201cThe macro backdrop will likely remain favorable for the precious metal as interest rates decline and foreign-reserve diversification continues amid geopolitical tensions, creating a perfect storm for gold.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn the longer term, Trump\u2019s proposed policies \u2013 including tariffs and stricter immigration controls, which are inflationary in nature \u2013 will limit interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve,\u201d she concluded. \u201cA stronger USD and tighter monetary policy could eventually provide some headwinds to gold. However, increased trade friction could add to gold\u2019s haven appeal.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ING projects the spot gold price will average $2,800 per ounce in Q1 and Q2, before pulling back to $2,750 in Q3 and $2,700 in Q4, for an average price of $2,760 per ounce for 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commodity analysts at BMO Capital Markets\u00a0predicted in their 2025 outlook that\u00a0gold will remain a key asset in investor portfolios in 2025, and noted that the potential for a global trade war will continue to fuel geopolitical uncertainty, providing further momentum for the\u00a0gold market.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe expect the push for de-dollarization of trade to re-emerge in Q2 as trade friction grows, and this could push\u00a0gold to new nominal highs,\u201d the analysts said.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BMO sees gold prices averaging around $2,750 an ounce in 2025, up 3% from its previous estimate. In a quarterly breakdown, the analysts expect prices will peak during the summer, averaging $2,850 an ounce in the third quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The analysts also expect China to continue to be a dominant player in the gold market.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe do not see global financial systems as being fully prepared for this, and hence gold is once more being pulled back into the monetary system,\u201d the analysts said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BlackRock, the world\u2019s largest asset manager,\u00a0said in their 2025 Global Outlook that the geopolitical landscape will be characterized by intensifying fragmentation in the year ahead, which is likely to accelerate de-dollarization and support gold purchases.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cElevated global tensions are accelerating the rewiring of supply chains,\u201d wrote Tom Donilon, Chairman of the BlackRock Investment Institute, \u201cand the formation of competing geopolitical and economic blocs. A second Trump administration is likely to reinforce those trends. We see that playing out in tech, energy and financial markets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Donilon wrote that the \u201crewiring of globalization\u201d is also being seen in reserve currencies. \u201cAs the world divides into competing blocs, and the U.S. and Western governments lean on sanctions and other restrictions for their policy response, some countries are shifting their reserves out of U.S. dollars into gold and other assets while increasingly conducting trade finance in non-dollar currencies,\u201d he said.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Samara Cohen, BlackRock\u2019s Chief Investment Officer of ETFs and Index Investments, said that investors will need to rely on diversifiers like gold and <\/a>Bitcoin to manage risk in this increasingly fragmented world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe erratic correlation between stock and bond returns has defined the new regime \u2013 and government bonds have become a less reliable cushion against equity selloffs as a result,\u201d she wrote. \u201cWe see the potential for other diversifiers, old like gold and new like bitcoin, to step in. This is not about replacing long-term bonds to find diversification but instead seeking new and distinct sources of risk and return.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGold has surged as investors seek to bolster portfolios against higher inflation, and some central banks seek alternatives to major reserve currencies,\u201d Cohen concluded. \u201cWe think it is key to monitor how the performance of these alternatives changes relative to traditional asset classes \u2013 and be nimble in using them.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commodities strategists at TD Securities\u00a0noted in their 2025 Outlook that\u00a0gold prices may see a near-term correction as investors reduce their long positions, but persistent inflation and geopolitical instability will ensure that the yellow metal will not see a rout in 2025.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

TD believes that the main drivers of gold’s record-breaking 2024 rally were \u201cexpectations of a rapid decline in the fed funds target rate, US political uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and strong buying activity by central banks and investors.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe impact of these supportive factors on gold has now likely peaked, with rate cut projections having been sharply reduced in the aftermath of the US elections as the GOP painted the American political map red, raising inflation risks on the horizon at a time when economic growth remains firm,\u201d the analysts warned. \u201cGiven the change in the interest rate trajectory, a firm USD, and a slower uptake of physical metal by central banks, coin and bar investors, the market may very well be ready to consolidate the recent gains.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under these circumstances, TD Securities said they would not be surprised to see some profit-taking from traders with significant long gold positions as they look ahead at higher bond yields, strong equity markets, and a changing geopolitical environment. \u201cSignificant macro fund liquidations may have already hit the tapes, limiting the scope for subsequent selling activity, but the macro outlook no longer favors extreme long positioning given lower odds of an ‘overly easy’ policy on the horizon,\u201d they wrote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The analysts said that while there are risks of a continued correction, there\u2019s also plenty of uncertainty to support gold\u2019s status as a hedge, including questions surrounding the Fed independence under the new GOP regime in Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFor the first time in decades, the US President-elect brings diverging ideas about whether the Fed should remain independent in setting monetary policy,\u201d they wrote. \u201cWhile we see low odds that President Trump would be able to remove Chair Powell from office, he may be able to appoint a more dovish Fed Chair after Powell’s term ends in May 2026. The notion of a “shadow Fed Chair” further risks threatening the Fed’s independence.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TD Securities\u2019 detailed forecasts have spot gold trading at $2,675 per ounce in the first quarter of 2025 and topping out at $2,700 in Q2, before dropping to $2,625 in both Q3 and Q4. Their outlook for the following year predicts more price moderation, as they see the yellow metal starting 2026 trading at $2,600 throughout the first half and $2,525 in the second half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After trading as high as $2,665.40 during the Asian session, gold prices have slid steadily lower on Friday, though they have held comfortably above the $2,600 per ounce level throughout the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Spot gold last traded at $2,639.71 per ounce for a loss of 0.70% on the day.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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By Ernest Hoffman After gaining nearly 30% in 2024 \u2013 outperforming every commodity and all but a handful of assets \u2013\u00a0gold prices are still inspiring confidence among many industry experts, while most retail traders see the yellow metal breaking above $3,000 per ounce in 2025.\u00a0 Spot gold kicked off the year hovering around $2,000 per ounce, … Continue reading “Strong majority of retail traders expect gold to trade above $3,000\/oz in 2025”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nStrong majority of retail traders expect gold to trade above $3,000\/oz in 2025 - Gold Silver Desk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/strong-majority-of-retail-traders-expect-gold-to-trade-above-3000-oz-in-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Strong majority of retail traders expect gold to trade above $3,000\/oz in 2025\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Ernest Hoffman After gaining nearly 30% in 2024 \u2013 outperforming every commodity and all but a handful of assets \u2013\u00a0gold prices are still inspiring confidence among many industry experts, while most retail traders see the yellow metal breaking above $3,000 per ounce in 2025.\u00a0 Spot gold kicked off the year hovering around $2,000 per ounce, … Continue reading "Strong majority of retail traders expect gold to trade above $3,000\/oz in 2025"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/strong-majority-of-retail-traders-expect-gold-to-trade-above-3000-oz-in-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Gold Silver Desk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-01-06T21:32:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-01-06T21:32:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/where-do-you-see-gold-prices-as-of-2025-1024x425.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"david@goldsilverdesk.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"david@goldsilverdesk.com\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"14 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/goldsilverdesk.com\\\/news\\\/strong-majority-of-retail-traders-expect-gold-to-trade-above-3000-oz-in-2025\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/goldsilverdesk.com\\\/news\\\/strong-majority-of-retail-traders-expect-gold-to-trade-above-3000-oz-in-2025\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"david@goldsilverdesk.com\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/goldsilverdesk.com\\\/news\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7985cc77bfb2b705aec4b5dd3e07c748\"},\"headline\":\"Strong majority of retail traders expect gold to trade above $3,000\\\/oz in 2025\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-01-06T21:32:28+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-01-06T21:32:30+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/goldsilverdesk.com\\\/news\\\/strong-majority-of-retail-traders-expect-gold-to-trade-above-3000-oz-in-2025\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":2823,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/goldsilverdesk.com\\\/news\\\/strong-majority-of-retail-traders-expect-gold-to-trade-above-3000-oz-in-2025\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/goldsilverdesk.com\\\/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/01\\\/where-do-you-see-gold-prices-as-of-2025-1024x425.jpg\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/goldsilverdesk.com\\\/news\\\/strong-majority-of-retail-traders-expect-gold-to-trade-above-3000-oz-in-2025\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/goldsilverdesk.com\\\/news\\\/strong-majority-of-retail-traders-expect-gold-to-trade-above-3000-oz-in-2025\\\/\",\"name\":\"Strong majority of retail traders expect gold to trade above $3,000\\\/oz in 2025 - 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