{"id":731,"date":"2025-07-25T23:26:22","date_gmt":"2025-07-25T23:26:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/?p=731"},"modified":"2025-07-25T23:27:07","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T23:27:07","slug":"dovish-fed-comments-suggest-fomc-intrigue-gold-will-challenge-3500-soon-commerzbanks-nguyen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/dovish-fed-comments-suggest-fomc-intrigue-gold-will-challenge-3500-soon-commerzbanks-nguyen\/","title":{"rendered":"Dovish Fed comments suggest FOMC intrigue, gold will challenge $3,500 soon \u2013 Commerzbank\u2019s Nguyen"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>By\u00a0<strong>Ernest Hoffman<\/strong> &#8211; 7-23-25<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"471\" height=\"266\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/gold-at-3500-7-25-25.png?resize=471%2C266&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-732\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/gold-at-3500-7-25-25.png?w=471&amp;ssl=1 471w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/gold-at-3500-7-25-25.png?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 471px) 85vw, 471px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00a0Gold prices are getting a boost from an outspoken dove at the FOMC who may be angling for Powell\u2019s job, and the yellow metal should be bumping up against the April all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in short order, according to Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe precious metal received support from dovish comments from the ranks of the US Federal Reserve: Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his view that the Fed should cut its key interest rate as early as July,\u201d Nguyen wrote in a research note. \u201cOverall, he advocates interest rate cuts of 125-150 basis points to bring the key interest rate to a &#8216;neutral&#8217; level of around 3%. He pointed to the latest inflation data, which was again moderate despite the US tariffs already in place.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Governor Waller\u2019s strong dovish stance is unlikely to sway Powell or the more hawkish wing of the FOMC, but it does add a new element of political intrigue at the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWaller&#8217;s comments have not increased the likelihood of the Fed cutting its key interest rate next week \u2013 other FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jay Powell, would otherwise have signaled such a move long ago \u2013 but they do increase Waller&#8217;s chances of succeeding Powell as Fed Chair next year,\u201d he added. \u201cHis comments are likely to be well received by US President Trump after all.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nguyen said that Waller&#8217;s willingness to look past any tariff-related price increases suggests that he would also be willing to accept a temporary rise in inflation. \u201cGold would become significantly more attractive as a result of the depressed real interest rate,\u201d he said. \u201cIf other potential candidates for the Fed chair position share this view, the recent record high of around $3,500 per troy ounce is likely to approach quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump has launched a litany of personal attacks against the Fed chair over the past several months, calling Powell a \u201cdumb guy,\u201d a \u201cmoron,\u201d a \u201cknucklehead,\u201d and nicknaming him \u201cMr. Too Late.\u201d The president recently stated that interest rates should be at least 3% lower, which would place them in a range between 1.25% and 1.50%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The uncertainty surrounding central bank leadership is injecting new volatility into markets, and\u00a0analysts say this environment will only worsen as concerns about the Federal Reserve\u2019s independence grow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a July 17 note, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank, described the Federal Reserve\u2019s independence as its \u201csuperpower.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe consequences of such an attack on the Fed\u2019s independence could be dramatic. Not only would the US dollar and Treasuries tumble, but the Fed would lose a superpower: the one that helps it support turmoiled financial markets by buying billions of dollars in US debt,\u201d she said. \u201cRemember, the US\u2014and a few privileged economic zones\u2014are unique in that government bonds can be supported by their central banks purchasing their debt. This is due to credibility. If that credibility is lost, the Fed loses its most important tool. If QE and the Fed\u2019s expanding balance sheet have worked so well over decades, it\u2019s because the Fed enjoys a level of credibility that few others do. If that credibility disappears, lowering rates would severely hurt both the dollar and Treasuries.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this environment, Ozkardeskaya advised investors to keep an eye on safe-haven assets, noting, \u201cit looks like we might see some serious action at the Fed this fall.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Michael Brown, Senior Market Analyst at Pepperstone, said Trump\u2019s actions seems designed to wipe out the central bank\u2019s credibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt appears that the administration is seeking to erode every last shred of monetary policy independence\u2014either right now or via the appointment of Powell\u2019s successor next May,\u201d Brown said in a comment to K-News. \u201cEither way, this is going to keep international investors spooked and ensure that reserve allocators continue to seek alternatives to the greenback. Obviously, this is where gold can shine.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said he is bullish on gold as the turmoil at the Fed adds to growing geopolitical uncertainty across financial markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIf political tensions rise even higher and the Federal Reserve faces more pressure from the White House, the most likely scenario would be increased volatility in the market. Gold, given its past role as a safe haven in times of political and economic volatility, would likely see more use as a store of value,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jim Wyckoff, Senior Market Analyst at Kitco.com, also said he expects gold to rally if Trump follows through with his initial threat to fire Powell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cTrump firing Powell would surprise the marketplace and drive safe-haven demand to gold, which in turn would likely pressure the U.S. dollar index\u2014at least initially,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After surging back above $3,400 per ounce on Monday, gold has been repeatedly rebuffed at the $3,432 resistance level, but a retest of key support near $3,405 at the North American open on Tuesday also held.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69eca730be7f9&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"69eca730be7f9\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"300\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/gold-at-3500-2-7-25-25.png?resize=600%2C300&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-733\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/gold-at-3500-2-7-25-25.png?w=600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/gold-at-3500-2-7-25-25.png?resize=300%2C150&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 984px) 61vw, (max-width: 1362px) 45vw, 600px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Spot gold last traded at $3,415.19 per ounce for a loss of 0.54% on the daily chart, but the yellow metal is still up 2.17% over the last five days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"35\" height=\"35\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-2.jpeg?resize=35%2C35&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-734\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/author\/ernest-hoffman\"><\/a><strong>Ernest Hoffman<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By\u00a0Ernest Hoffman &#8211; 7-23-25 \u00a0Gold prices are getting a boost from an outspoken dove at the FOMC who may be angling for Powell\u2019s job, and the yellow metal should be bumping up against the April all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in short order, according to Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/goldsilverdesk.com\/news\/dovish-fed-comments-suggest-fomc-intrigue-gold-will-challenge-3500-soon-commerzbanks-nguyen\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Dovish Fed comments suggest FOMC intrigue, gold will challenge $3,500 soon \u2013 Commerzbank\u2019s Nguyen&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v20.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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