Month: August 2026

August 13,2026

Gold Bull Catalyst

August 13 (KWN) – Tom McClellan:  The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell last week on the coordinated US-Japan intervention in the yen. The drop took the DXY back below the 100.50 support/resistance level, marking the move above that level as a failed breakout.

Commercial traders of Dollar Index futures responded this week (COT Report data) by actually upping their collective net short position. If you look back at other price tops in this chart, you may notice that when the commercials do this, adding shorts after the downturn, it means that there is a lot more downturn yet to come for the DXY.

KWN NOTE: McClellan’s Fantastic Chart and Commentary Strongly Suggests Much More Downside for The US Dollar

US Strategic Petroleum Reserves Continue to Collapse

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at SaxoBank:  Takeaways from the EIA’s weekly inventory report:

US crude inventories jumped by 17.4 million barrels, the largest weekly increase since January 2023, driven by a 1.1 mb/d surge in imports and exports falling to 3 mb/d, a November low, after the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in June boosted global crude availability. In addition, another 6.1 million barrels were released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, bringing total SPR releases since the start of the Middle East war to 117 million barrels.

KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: US Strategic Petroleum Reserves Continue To Collapse – Lowest Level In Nearly 50 Years

US crude production held steady, while refinery demand remained robust. Diesel exports reached a fresh record of 2 mb/d, highlighting continued tightness in the global middle-distillate market, while implied domestic fuel demand held up despite elevated prices…

ANOTHER GOLD BULL CATALYST: Inflation

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at SaxoBank:  Following a brief lull last month, triggered by the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and before renewed Red Sea shipping risks emerged, global container rates have resumed their ascent into August. The Drewry World Container Index rose another 1% this week to USD 4,338 per 40-foot container, leaving rates 85% higher year-on-year and up 96% since the start of the year.

KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: Expect More “Transitory” Inflation As Transport Costs Continue To Soar

The renewed increase is far from uniform, however, with the latest strength heavily concentrated on the Shanghai–New York route. As one of the world’s longest major container lanes, it is particularly exposed to higher fuel costs, longer voyage times and disruption-related surcharges. Rates on the route jumped 10% this week to a two-year high and are now up 164% year-to-date.

By contrast, Europe-bound rates have softened, highlighting how the current surge is increasingly route-specific rather than a broad-based rise in global freight costs. The divergence also underlines the uneven impact of Middle East shipping disruptions, with longer Asia–US East Coast routes carrying a particularly large risk and fuel premium.

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August 14, 2026

The Tide Is Turning for Gold

August 14 (KWN) – Alasdair Macleod:  There’s a sea-change underway in investor attitudes towards gold and silver. Markets now see growing risk to the dollar as a consequence of oil supply disruption.

When America first attacked Iran on 28 February, gold and silver prices declined: gold from $5320 and silver from $93. Admittedly, both were vulnerable to a severe bout of bull market indigestion which was hardly propitious. But the suggestion of deferred interest rate deductions appeared to work against precious metal prices. Meanwhile, the equity and other bubbles continued to be inflated by free-flowing credit.

Just about the only sensible arguments as to why this was the case veers towards conspiracies: bullion banks using febrile investor psychology that they should liquidate their positions before they lose even more. Sentiment became about as negative as it could get, with open interest on Comex falling to exceptionally low levels. The chart below illustrates open interest in the silver contract:

Open interest in both gold and silver contracts are beginning to recover as can be seen in the chart above and for gold below. This is consistent with smart money accumulating long positions. The chart below zooms in to gold, which confirms what is being seen in silver:

It is a fact that while speculators in both west and east have been forced out of paper gold and silver, China and allied partners have been accumulating physical. The next chart records the PBOC’s increase in reserves during falling prices:

In addition to monetary gold, customs figures show Chinese banks importing far larger quantities of non-monetary gold:

Basically, between the PBOC and China’s commercial banks they have been buying all the bullion on offer. And now, they are promoting gold accumulation accounts to China’s household savers.

Securities Daily, one of the major financial newspapers in China reported overnight that “commercial banks are increasing their efforts to promote these retail gold accounts by offering spread reductions, discounts per gramme and coupons”. The potential market here is over $5 trillion equivalent.

This tells us that the penultimate insiders close to the PBOC have called the bottom in gold prices, and that the retail demand they are tapping into is far from a trivial number.

We now turn to the changing attitudes in western capital markets. Having seen weak holders chased out of the market, we find that gold and silver are now tending to rise in circumstances which recently generated markdowns. From mid-July, not only have gold and silver begun to rise, but so too have oil and the yield on the 10-year US treasury note. This is a remarkable change which was particularly evident in the last two weeks. And it marks the beginning of a change in perception from the risk-free position being holding dollar T-bills to gold bullion.

Could The Price Of Gold Double To $8,000 In A Few Months?
The same abrupt change in sentiment was obvious in 1973—1974, when OPEC raised its reference prices twice. After initially causing gold to be marked down by about 30%, before the second increase the smart money began buying gold and it went on to double in little more than three months. This is shown in the chart below:

INFLATION: Expect Global Shortages Of Oil, Diesel, Kerosene

Today, the oil price has seen an initial and minor increase, contained by the US policy of supplying oil freely from its strategic reserves. That is coming to an end so oil prices will now increase and global shortages of derivatives such as diesel, kerosene etc. will end up driving inflation far higher than currently expected. We know this for certain from the 1973—1974 oil crisis, which led to consumer price inflation hitting 12% in the US, 30% in Japan, and 25% in the UK.

This is why bond yields are now threatening to go significantly higher, confirming debt traps for government funding requirements in the dollar and all other G7 currencies. To add to the sense of a funding crisis, US government debt is only days away from hitting the $40 trillion mark.

We will watch with interest to see whether the rise in gold and silver from here follows the rapid precedent set by the 1970s OPEC crisis. One thing is for sure: they are seriously under-owned for such an event. 

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August 14, 2026

August 15 (KWN) – Nomi Prins, who gives speeches to the World Bank, IMF and Federal Reserve:  “What’s really interesting about all of the fiat currencies and governments destroying their money, which they have been (aggressively) doing for decades, is the additional increase in debt over the last few years or even the last decade.  And you talked in the beginning about it doesn’t matter who’s leading, it doesn’t matter the politics.  I look at the numbers and the numbers are that no matter who’s running whatever country, debt is accumulating.

BIS (Bank for International Settlements) To Make Silver A Tier 1 Asset

I still believe, maybe not this year, maybe next year there will be more BIS rules that will accommodate silver into Tier 1 types of assets for central banks.  That will create a monetary incentive for silver.  And people are already buying silver for wealth preservation purposes.  Gold continues to be accumulated by central banks for two reasons: One is to diversify against fiat currencies, particularly the dollar.  It doesn’t mean going back to a full gold standard, but the more gold is held by central banks, the more gold is becoming a player.  I see gold going to $6,000 by the turn of this year and silver over $120.  And I see silver going to $180 next year, and I see gold going to $7 to $8,000 next year…

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