Author: david@goldsilverdesk.com

8/18/2025

World debt is now at terrifying levels and it is fueling the gold bull market.

August 18 (KWN) – Matthew Piepenburg, partner at VON GREYERZ:  Fifty-four years ago (August 15, 1971), Nixon took the USD off its gold standard, thereby officially putting the final nail in the Constitutionally mandated concept of US money.

But hey, at least the Constitution can still serve as a nice museum piece for kids to walk past.

Lies from on High

Back in 1971, the lies from on high (which are nothing new to any sophisticated and critically thinking citizen) were at full swing.

Nixon got on live TV and promised us the decoupling was “only temporary” (sound familiar?) and that “your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as today.”

But the fibbing did not start or end there.

Prior to the decoupling of August 15, the Treasury Secretary and Fed officials were making the case that gold was actually holding the dollar down and that decoupling gold would strengthen the dollar going forward, while gold’s value would, in fact, fall.

Hmmm.

Facts from Math…

A little fact-checking may be worth a smirk here…

First, the decoupling from gold has lasted more than half a century, so it hardly feels “temporary.”

As for the USD holding its purchasing power, well, when measured against a milligram of gold, that paper dollar has lost > 99% of its value since 1971.

Meanwhile, and contrary to the expert hearing testimony of a 1971 Fed Chairman and Treasury Secretary, gold has not got down in price, but has risen, by well… 8000%.

EIGHT THOUSAND PERCENT.

Huh?

What the Heck?

How was this possible? What did gold do in the last 54 years?

In fact, gold did very little…

But the dollar, now unfettered by its Constitutionally mandated gold-backing, got very, very, very busy multiplying (i.e., debasing) itself to pay for just criminally negligent deficit-spending.

Like a teenager with dad’s Amex, the debt and spend addiction of US “leadership” was officially born on August 15, 1971 –the very same day the USD’s death spiral began.

Don’t want to believe me? Don’t see the correlation?

Here’s another stubborn fact: In 1971, US public (governmental debt) was $ $398B.

As of this writing, that number has skyrocketed to $37.2T in the literal course of my lifetime…

History Ignored = History Repeated

The lesson is simple: Currencies backed by nothing will encourage debt addictions, which debase the purchasing power of paper money.

This is a cycle which has been repeated countless times throughout history. (See: The Faces and Cycles of Gold).

Gold, which is far more honest than policy makers, rises because paper money ALWAYS dies under the weight of dishonest spending.

From Dishonesty to Desperation

Dishonesty, of course, is always followed by a lack of accountability, which is in turn followed by behavioral patterns of desperation, finger-pointing and madness – like a sitting President calling a Fed Chairman, of whom we are no fans, “a total loser.”

The scope of policy desperation now masquerading as bold action (tariff policies, the Genuis Act, Fed name-calling and even increased “buzz” of a gold revaluation) is now a daily thing.

What’s even scarier is that such patterns aren’t unique to the USA; they are global…

Global debt in 1997 was $30T. Today, that figure has skyrocketed well past $300T.

In the interim, politicians and paid-for economists in DC think-tanks (oxymoron?) have hypnotized the masses into falsely believing that such otherwise unthinkable debt-levels could be sustained.

How?

By the equally unthinkable proposal that currencies mouse-clicked at a central bank could safely absorb such debt with no risk to the currency, economy or market.

But as we (and common sense) have reminded for years: You can’t solve a debt crisis with more debt that is then monetized with money created ex-nihilo out of thin air.

The First Kinks in the Armor: Credit Markets

Debt (as David Hume, von Mises and other critical-thinking “gold bugs” have warned for generations) breaks, well, just about everything…

Nowhere is this truer than in the US and global credit markets, where policy makers and investors whistle past debt crisis after debt crisis.

But debt crises are effectively just liquidity crises, and we have seen quite a string of them in recent (yet media-ignored) memory.

The repo crisis of 2019, for example, as well as the market implosion of 2020, the GILT crisis of 2022, the banking crisis of 2023 and even the tariff crisis of April, 2025 were ultimately just signposts of a liquidity/credit/debt crisis percolating in plain yet ignored sight.

In each instance, the foregoing credit implosions were “resolved” by dovish central bank reactions of either lower rates or higher money printing.

In other words: Can kicking to buy time, votes and excuses as the next generation inherits a nightmare.

The Second Kink in the Armor: Inflated Equity Bubbles

But expanding currency creation via grotesque credit expansion to provide “emergency” liquidity while subsidizing an otherwise unloved UST market and inflating an objectively over-valued stock market is no “solution.”

It is merely a frog-boil currency debasement which widens the pace of wealth inequality while rapidly feeding market bubbles, and by extension, market risk.

Market Bubbles Don’t Equal Strong Economies

For years, we have openly mocked the falsely positive fiction writing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for their false inflation reporting and comically (and seemingly constant) optimistic labor data.

But with Main Street now crawling under the invisible and misreported tax of inflation as well as downwardly revised job growth (which confirms a recession we have said is already here), Trump just fired the head of the same BLS for actually telling the truth.

Folks, regardless of your political bias, one really can’t make this kind of crazy up.

But why worry, as the immortal S&P, NASDAQ and DOW (90% owned by the USA’s top 10%) is going to save us, right?

Hmmm.

This S&P takes 40% of its market cap from 7 stocks whose net-income-margins are just waiting for a mean-reversion whenever the AI meme (just like prior memes, from dotcoms, real estate, electricity, automobiles and railroads) becomes over-crowed and over-bought.

Margin debt in US markets has surpassed the $1T mark, which is greater than prior peaks in the dot.com and pre-08 bubbles.

Meanwhile, insiders like Bezos are selling billions in personal shares, and Buffet himself is sitting largely (hundreds of billions) in cash as the NASDAQ trades at 49X earnings.

In short, if you think the markets with such a profile will save the US economy, think otherwise.

They are teetering on interest rate and recession risk reminiscent of 1929 America and 1989 Japan. When these bubbles popped, it took decades, not months, to recover prior highs.

Just saying.

The World (and Gold’s) Reaction to US Decline

As a post-2022 world turns increasingly away from a weaponized USD, and as the BRICS+ nations look with each passing day for new ways to trade outside the Greenback and net settle global trade deals in physical gold, the trend away from the USD and US debt, just like the BLS’ pessimistic labor data, can no longer be hidden in plain sight.

Equally undeniable is gold’s objective rise as a strategic global reserve asset preferred over the UST.

Since the USA shot itself in the foot by weaponizing an allegedly neutral reserve asset (the USD) in 2022, central bank stacking of gold has tripled while demand for USTs has tanked.

As of July 2025, even the BIS has confirmed gold’s status as a Tier-1 asset alongside the far less credible 10Y UST.

Demand for physical gold has shattered the hitherto (and legal) price-fixing at the New York and London metals exchange.

Rather than lever gold with paper, these dubious market-makers/exchanges are now forced to execute actual delivery rather than churn short contracts.

Meanwhile, gold trades are moving East, where the Shanghai and St. Petersburg exchanges are turning the tables on Western manipulation of an asset the East has understood far better (and longer) than the West.

More Desperation Follows…

In this backdrop of a world awash in unloved US Dollars, IOU’s and fantasy policies, DC has been forced to become more desperate in the face of a DXY which has seen the worst half-year performance in 40 years.

This desperation takes many forms, including shoot-from-the-hip tariff policies which change almost daily and send markets up and down like yo-yos, wherein trillions of equity market caps can be made or lost in hours.

Genuis Act Ruse

As demand and trust in the USD gyrates, DC is forced to create clever new projects to boost this demand, of which the Genuis Act (2nd oxymoron?) is the most recent example.

By pairing stablecoins to UST’s (and hence the USD), this king-maker act simply allows fintech giants (Tether, Circle Internet) and favored banks (JP Morgan) to issue stablecoin users a digital buck while the issuers reinvest client money into a UST arbitrage whereby they keep all the yield (profits) and the coin owner just gets a trackable, programable and take-able “coin.”

Such a profile, of course, makes stablecoins a CBDC in substance rather than form, as they are merely CBDC’s issued by private actors (directly tied to the Fed) rather than a central bank.

In short, a classic distinction without a difference.

Nor are stablecoins (3rd oxymoron?) either “stable” or a “coin.”

Like the banks which failed in 2023 due to UST volatility and interest rate swings, stablecoins rise and fall with bond yield gyrations.

Hence, these “stablecoins” are no more stable than Signature Valley Bank or the Treasury market itself, which, for anyone paying attention, is anything but stable…

The Only Option Left: More Debasement

Uncle Sam’s sovereign bonds are as sick as Uncle Sam’s fatally ill debt levels.

Unless trillions are “printed” at the Fed to buy those bonds, their demand and hence prices will fall, which means their yields will rise.

Bond yields, of course, represent the true cost of debt/borrowing, and with the US so indebted, it can NOT afford to allow bond yields to spike.

Like all debt-soaked nations throughout history, the Fed will thus be forced to chose between saving the bond market or saving the currency.

The dollar will be sacrificed (debased) to sustain the bond/debt market for the simple reason that debt is the only “force” supporting so-called American “growth” and “hegemony.”

Gold Revaluation – More Desperate than Effective

Meanwhile, there is serious talk of revaluing Uncle Sam’s 261 million ounces of $42.22 gold certificates to market or higher. There is equal and realistic buzz of a gold-backed Treasury, themes I’ve addressed at length elsewhere: Gold Revaluation: Trump’s Red Button Option.

Gold owners certainly welcome such revaluation, but the very need for such policies is merely enhanced confirmation that gold is needed and trusted more than the USD – even among US leadership…

Looking Ahead? It Looks Bad…

All of the foregoing facts confirm just how debt-distorted the US economy and narrative are, as of 2025.

They also confirm just how debt-trapped US policies have become. More importantly, they confirm just how doomed the US economy is going forward.

This is because the US growth narrative has zero good options left to it. Once debt/GDP ratios cross the 100% Rubicon (we are now at 120%+), growth mathematically slows by 1/3.

And the only way to bring this debt ratio down is via massive spending cuts well beyond the DOGE or USAID cuts. The real debts come from entitlements and military spending, which no politician can or will touch.

The US Already in Default?

Again, this leaves the US with only bad options to address unsustainable debt. It can either default or inflate away its debt.

Guess which option DC will (and has) take(n)?

But here’s the rub.

By inflating away its debt via currency debasement, inflation levels are soaring past UST yields, resulting in negative real rates – i.e. a NEGATIVE returning UST, which by definition, IS a defaulting bond.

The ironies abound…

But the US avoids publicly displaying this irony and default by simply lying about (i.e., misreporting) the US inflation rate, measured by a CPI scale that has been “modified” over 20 times since the Volcker era to mask actual inflation data.

Again: Just more desperation hiding in plain sight.

Gold Is Now So Clear

All of this explains gold’s massive rise after the 2022 turning point. If folks like you and I can see the desperation and balance sheet of the USA, the rest of the world can too.

That is why central banks, sovereign wealth funds and even the BIS itself are openly transitioning from bad “money” (i.e. fiat/paper “money”) to real money, i.e., physical gold.

Silver

Silver’s real moves, already significant in 2024 and 2025, are yet to come. In gold bull markets, silver dramatically outperforms.

We are not close to the gold/silver ratios of 1980 or 2011 (15 & 32, respectively), for the simple reason that despite 40% rises in 2025 (and outperforming the S&P since 2000), the gold bull market has yet to even gain its stride.

Meanwhile, silver, sitting atop a 5-year supply deficit and a 45-year cup & handle formation, continues to rise, and when priced in gold terms, silver is still attractively undervalued.

For patient investors, silver will be quite rewarding.

Preservation Is Wealth

Ultimately, however, our aim is wealth preservation first and foremost. Gold’s historical role as a store of value in times of paper money debacles means wealth is made by: (1) not losing it and (2) not measuring it in fiat terms.

If your own governments fail to protect your currency and wealth, the responsibility rests within each individual.

This article is shared for informational purposes only. Views are the author’s (KWN -Matthew Piepenburg ) and may not reflect those of Gold Silver Desk. Not investment advice—consult your own advisor.

---

By Ernest Hoffman – 7-23-25

 Gold prices are getting a boost from an outspoken dove at the FOMC who may be angling for Powell’s job, and the yellow metal should be bumping up against the April all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in short order, according to Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank.

“The precious metal received support from dovish comments from the ranks of the US Federal Reserve: Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his view that the Fed should cut its key interest rate as early as July,” Nguyen wrote in a research note. “Overall, he advocates interest rate cuts of 125-150 basis points to bring the key interest rate to a ‘neutral’ level of around 3%. He pointed to the latest inflation data, which was again moderate despite the US tariffs already in place.”

Governor Waller’s strong dovish stance is unlikely to sway Powell or the more hawkish wing of the FOMC, but it does add a new element of political intrigue at the Federal Reserve.

“Waller’s comments have not increased the likelihood of the Fed cutting its key interest rate next week – other FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jay Powell, would otherwise have signaled such a move long ago – but they do increase Waller’s chances of succeeding Powell as Fed Chair next year,” he added. “His comments are likely to be well received by US President Trump after all.”

Nguyen said that Waller’s willingness to look past any tariff-related price increases suggests that he would also be willing to accept a temporary rise in inflation. “Gold would become significantly more attractive as a result of the depressed real interest rate,” he said. “If other potential candidates for the Fed chair position share this view, the recent record high of around $3,500 per troy ounce is likely to approach quickly.”

Trump has launched a litany of personal attacks against the Fed chair over the past several months, calling Powell a “dumb guy,” a “moron,” a “knucklehead,” and nicknaming him “Mr. Too Late.” The president recently stated that interest rates should be at least 3% lower, which would place them in a range between 1.25% and 1.50%.

The uncertainty surrounding central bank leadership is injecting new volatility into markets, and analysts say this environment will only worsen as concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence grow.

In a July 17 note, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank, described the Federal Reserve’s independence as its “superpower.”

“The consequences of such an attack on the Fed’s independence could be dramatic. Not only would the US dollar and Treasuries tumble, but the Fed would lose a superpower: the one that helps it support turmoiled financial markets by buying billions of dollars in US debt,” she said. “Remember, the US—and a few privileged economic zones—are unique in that government bonds can be supported by their central banks purchasing their debt. This is due to credibility. If that credibility is lost, the Fed loses its most important tool. If QE and the Fed’s expanding balance sheet have worked so well over decades, it’s because the Fed enjoys a level of credibility that few others do. If that credibility disappears, lowering rates would severely hurt both the dollar and Treasuries.”

In this environment, Ozkardeskaya advised investors to keep an eye on safe-haven assets, noting, “it looks like we might see some serious action at the Fed this fall.”

Michael Brown, Senior Market Analyst at Pepperstone, said Trump’s actions seems designed to wipe out the central bank’s credibility.

“It appears that the administration is seeking to erode every last shred of monetary policy independence—either right now or via the appointment of Powell’s successor next May,” Brown said in a comment to K-News. “Either way, this is going to keep international investors spooked and ensure that reserve allocators continue to seek alternatives to the greenback. Obviously, this is where gold can shine.”

Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said he is bullish on gold as the turmoil at the Fed adds to growing geopolitical uncertainty across financial markets.

“If political tensions rise even higher and the Federal Reserve faces more pressure from the White House, the most likely scenario would be increased volatility in the market. Gold, given its past role as a safe haven in times of political and economic volatility, would likely see more use as a store of value,” he said.

Jim Wyckoff, Senior Market Analyst at Kitco.com, also said he expects gold to rally if Trump follows through with his initial threat to fire Powell.

“Trump firing Powell would surprise the marketplace and drive safe-haven demand to gold, which in turn would likely pressure the U.S. dollar index—at least initially,” he said.

After surging back above $3,400 per ounce on Monday, gold has been repeatedly rebuffed at the $3,432 resistance level, but a retest of key support near $3,405 at the North American open on Tuesday also held.

Spot gold last traded at $3,415.19 per ounce for a loss of 0.54% on the daily chart, but the yellow metal is still up 2.17% over the last five days.

Ernest Hoffman

---

By Neils Christensen – 7/23/25

Gold prices are holding support above $3,400 an ounce but continue to struggle to attract renewed safe-haven demand, even as the U.S. housing market shows further signs of weakness.

Total existing-home sales—including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops—fell 2.7% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units, down from May’s 4.04 million, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced Wednesday.

The data was weaker than expected; economists had forecast a smaller decline to a 4 million sales pace. Year-over-year, existing-home sales remained unchanged.

Despite the disappointing sales figures, gold prices have been resilient, moving off their session lows. Spot gold last traded at $3,418.10 an ounce, down 0.28% on the day.

According to the NAR report, the housing market continues to face significant headwinds as prospective buyers contend with higher borrowing costs and elevated home prices.

“Multiple years of undersupply are driving the record-high home prices. Home construction continues to lag population growth. This is holding back first-time homebuyers from entering the market. More supply is needed to increase the share of first-time homebuyers in the coming years, even though some markets appear to have a temporary oversupply at the moment,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

The report noted that the median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $435,300, up 2% from a year earlier ($426,900)—a record high for the month and the 24th consecutive year-over-year price increase.

Low housing inventory continues to support higher prices. The supply of homes for sale last month totaled 1.53 million units, down 0.6% from May, representing a 4.7-month supply.

In addition to elevated home prices, the Federal Reserve’s neutral monetary policy stance is keeping mortgage rates high. As of July 17, the 30-year mortgage rate in the United States rose to 6.75%.

While the Fed is set to hold its monetary policy meeting next week, markets do not expect an interest rate cut. Current expectations point to the first potential rate reduction in September.

The central bank has maintained that it is in no rush to cut rates, citing a relatively healthy labor market and persistent inflation risks.

However, Yun noted that interest rate cuts would likely stimulate new activity in the housing sector.

“High mortgage rates are causing home sales to remain stuck at cyclical lows. If average mortgage rates were to decline to 6%, our scenario analysis suggests an additional 160,000 renters could become first-time homeowners, with increased sales activity from existing homeowners,” Yun said. “Expanding participation in the housing market will increase workforce mobility and drive economic growth. If mortgage rates decrease in the second half of this year, expect home sales to increase nationwide, supported by strong income growth, healthy inventory, and a record-high number of jobs.”

By Neils Christensen

---

By Neils Christensen

Silver is struggling to hold its ground at $39 an ounce, but after seven years of supply deficits, the precious metal remains in a solid uptrend, according to one market strategist.

Maria Smirnova, Senior Portfolio Manager and Chief Investment Officer at Sprott Asset Management, said in her mid-year silver outlook that the silver market may be poised for a sharp upside in the second half of the year due to solid demand and significantly diminished supply.

The comments come as silver prices have already seen robust gains in recent months, even outpacing gold’s performance. Spot silver last traded at $39.05 an ounce, down 0.57% on the day; however, the precious metal is up nearly 35% since the start of the year.

Meanwhile, gold last traded at $3,373.50 an ounce, up 28.5% year-to-date.

“We believe the catalysts for this silver bull market are a structural supply deficit, growing industrial demand, and renewed investor interest, particularly among Asian and North American retail buyers of exchange-traded products, coins, and bars,” she said in her report.

Industrial demand has been a critical factor behind silver’s growing deficit, and Smirnova said she doesn’t expect this trend to reverse anytime soon. Since 2016, total global silver demand has grown by 16%, while mine production has fallen by 7%.

In this environment, Smirnova said the precious metal’s near-term potential could depend on retail demand, which remains the wild card in the marketplace.

“The available inventory of freely traded silver has been heavily diminished, making the metal more sensitive to incremental buying,” she said. “Small increases in demand could now lead to disproportionately large increases in price. With less silver available for open-market trading, investor positioning has become a more decisive force in price movements.”

While silver has outperformed gold in recent months, Smirnova noted that gold’s premium remains overextended. The gold-silver ratio has dropped to 86, down sharply from the highs above 100 seen in April. However, the ratio’s historical average hovers between 50 and 60.

Smirnova said that this positioning still makes silver an attractive value play for retail investors.

“Silver is regaining prominence as a trusted safe-haven asset in today’s environment of increased geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and financial market instability. Historically, silver has served as a store of value in periods of crisis, much like gold, but with the added benefit of being significantly more affordable and accessible for retail investors,” she said. “With supply deficits deepening and demand intensifying across both industrial and investment channels, silver’s bull market appears well supported. We believe silver offers an attractive opportunity for investors seeking exposure to a hard asset with both growth and defensive qualities.”

As for silver’s potential upside, Smirnova noted that historically, in a precious metals bull market, silver’s rally has, on average, been twice as large as gold’s.

“This past outperformance is due in part to silver’s smaller market size and higher volatility, which amplifies price movements, and silver’s dual role as both a monetary and industrial metal, which adds extra demand,” she said.

By Neils Christensen

---

By Neils Christensen – 4-10-2025

Growing fears that the U.S. economy will see lower growth and higher inflation have finally pushed investors off the sidelines and into gold in a meaningful way, according to the latest research from the World Gold Council.

While the gold market has seen solid inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds since the start of the year, the March flow data from the WGC showed a broad-based increase in all major regions.

According to the report, North American-listed funds represented 61% of total inflows, while European markets accounted for about 22% of demand and Asian markets represented 16% of global inflows.

European demand has been the missing piece, underperforming within the gold market for the last few months compared to other regions. However, the WGC noted that these funds are starting to catch up.

“First quarter flows in Europe of US$4.6bn stood out as the strongest quarter since Q1 2020,” the analysts said in the report.

In total, 92 tonnes of gold, valued at $8.6 billion, flowed into global ETFs last month. Meanwhile, 226 tonnes of gold, valued at $21 billion, flowed into ETFs in the first quarter, marking the second highest quarterly level in dollar terms, only behind the second quarter of 2020.

In a regional breakdown, North American ETFs saw their gold holdings increase by 67.4 tonnes last month. The analysts said that demand continues to be driven by the usual factors, including solid momentum coupled with economic chaos and geopolitical uncertainty.

“Additionally, equity pullbacks, due to growth concerns and market liquidity worries amid ongoing quantitative tightening, further pushed up investor demand for safe-haven assets,” the analysts said.

Meanwhile, European-listed funds saw inflows of 13.7 tonnes. The report said the UK, Switzerland, and Germany all saw an increase in gold holdings.

“Although the Bank of England made no changes to its benchmark rate during its March meeting, a cloudy growth outlook further weighed by US tariff concerns, weak stock market performance, and the gold price surge drove demand higher in the UK,” the analysts said. “Equally, despite a jump in the 10-year German Bund yield in early March amid Germany’s massive spending plan, investors in Europe continue to add gold ETFs to their portfolios as the ECB’s March cut encouraged further easing expectations and US tariff risks loom over the growth outlook.”

Finally, Asia-based funds saw inflows of 9.5 tonnes last month.

“China and Japan dominated demand in March, both likely driven by rocketing gold price performances, which dwarfed other assets in the month, and roaring global trade policy risks,” the analysts said.

Although there is a risk that gold’s rally becomes unsustainable, the WGC said the market is backed by solid momentum.

“The extent and speed of gold’s rally have drawn out comparisons to previous peaks. While there are headwinds that the gold market will naturally face in this environment, our analysis also suggests that current macroeconomic conditions are quite different from prior periods when the gold market reached previous highs,” the analysts said in the report.

“The willingness to hold and reluctance to sell – given current extreme policy uncertainty – could generate real momentum,” they added. “By historical standards, the current rally isn’t particularly large or long. And comparing the current rally to the recent 2011 and 2020 peaks highlights that, relatively speaking, fundamentals look more solid.”

---