Author: david@goldsilverdesk.com

By Neils Christensen – 4-11-2025

The gold market continues to hold near record highs above $3,200 an ounce and is paying little attention to economic data as U.S. wholesale inflation pressures fell sharply last month.

The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 0.4% in March, following February’s revised 0.1% reading, the U.S. Labor Department announced on Friday. The latest inflation data was significantly cooler than expectations, as economists had predicted a 0.2% increase.

In the last 12 months, headline wholesale inflation increased by 2.7%, well below the consensus of 3.3%.

Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, dropped 0.1% last month, in line with February’s 0.1% decline. Economists had forecast a 0.3% increase. Annual core PPI was 3.3%, also well below the consensus expectation of 3.6%.

The report indicated that lower energy prices were the biggest contributing factor behind the drop in producer prices.

Gold is not paying much attention to the forward-looking inflation numbers as the market continues to attract significant safe-haven flows due to the weakening U.S. dollar and elevated bond yields. Spot gold last traded at $3,230.40 an ounce, up nearly 2% on the day.

Some economists note that the inflation data is outdated as the market continues to react to President Donald Trump’s global reciprocal tariffs, which were in place for a week before being halted for 90 days.

“While tariff effects didn’t move the needle for either CPI or PPI in March, there were some signs of them in this release, with the steel mill product PPI jumping by 7.1%. The broader tariffs that took effect last week will start to feed through in the next set of monthly price data, although the recent weakness in markets and evidence of some economic weakness may give the Fed more confidence that these will not have significant second-round effects,” said Stephen Brown, Deputy Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics.

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Gold recovers most of its losses while world markets sink

Gloomy economic growth outlook offers ‘perfect backdrop for further gains in gold’, says BullionVault’s Adrian Ash

By Myra P Saefong

Gold on Thursday was performing its “role as a store of value, providing liquidity in times of trouble,” said Brien Lundin of Gold Newsletter.

Gold fell victim to a selloff in global markets Thursday after President Donald Trump announced wide-ranging tariffs on foreign imports — but it’s still a clear-cut winner to hedge uncertainty, as bargain hunters helped prices for the precious metal recover much of their losses by the day’s settlement.

Gold bulls were looking to “buy the dip amid trade-war chaos,” Jake Hanley, managing director and senior portfolio specialist at Teucrium, told MarketWatch, as gold futures traded well off Thursday’s intraday lows.

Gold futures had dropped by more than $90 an ounce on Comex, from Wednesday’s record-high settlement at $3,166.20 an ounce to their intraday low of $3,073.50 on Thursday, Factset data showed.

“What we’re witnessing today is the kind of asset-wide liquidity event in which everything is sold to raise capital,” said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. “In this kind of liquidity vacuum, babies are thrown out with the bath water across the board.”
— Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter

“As we’ve seen in previous events like this, gold performs its role as a store of value, providing liquidity in times of trouble,” Lundin told MarketWatch. “It is the figurative piggy bank that gets broken open as traders desperately reach for cash to meet margin calls.”

Following Wednesday’s announcement of Trump’s new plan for U.S. tariffs — which include a universal tax of 10% on imported products from all other countries — U.S. benchmark stock indexes traded broadly lower Thursday, dragging down most markets along with it, including oil prices. Treasurys were an exception, rallying as investors sought safety in the bond market.

Dennis Gartman, retired publisher of the Gartman Letter, said he had sold the “vast majority” of his gold-oriented holdings on Tuesday, ahead of Trump’s announcement. He retained “only my very small holdings of actual, physical gold,” which he’s had for nearly 15 years and said he has no intention of selling, given that he owns that bullion at something close to $600 an ounce.

Gartman, who serves as emeritus chairman of the University of Akron Foundation’s endowment investment committee, said he has little intention of getting back into those gold-oriented holdings “at the moment given the confused atmosphere.”

The White House said some goods and economies would be exempted from the reciprocal tariffs, including gold bullion, according to the Wall Street Journal. Concerns that Trump’s tariffs would include gold had contributed to the metal’s rise to record highs. Traders had scrambled to move physical gold to New York from London and took advantage of a big spread between London spot prices and near-term New York futures prices.

Short term, Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, said Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs were proving to be a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” event for gold prices. Gold futures on Comex had touched fresh record intraday highs above $3,200 overnight, before temporarily dipping below $3,100. settled at $3,121.70 an ounce, down $44.50, or 1.4%.

Gold recoups most of its early Thursday lossesSource: FactSet

April 2April 33,0753,1003,1253,1503,175$3,200

“Risk and uncertainty are strategic drivers of gold demand, whether they are prompted by safe-haven conditions or economic conditions that will be impacted by trade wars,” Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist, Americas, at the World Gold Council, told MarketWatch. Gold remains “top of mind as a global asset, driven by the need for the right kind of diversification to a portfolio — one that offsets risk [and] volatility, and provides returns.”

Still, for now, the obvious move for traders is out of risk assets and into U.S. Treasurys “as traders seek to shore up liquidity and seek safety,” said Teucrium’s Hanley.

“No one can know for certain who the winners and losers will be” following the implementation of Trump’s tariffs, he said. It will all depend on trade negotiations, but “gold is likely to benefit from the ongoing uncertainty.”

Thursday’s low may actually be the “bargain” price level investors were looking for, as gold clawed back much of the session’s decline, Hanley noted, but “round-number support levels” include $3,000 and $2,800.

“If gold prices fall back to these levels and hold, it will signal that investors see value at those prices,” he said.

Longer term, BullionVault’s Ash said he believes the reasons behind gold’s “stellar start to 2025 are only stronger now that Trump has announced his tariffs.

“Weaker trade, higher input costs and shrinking margins are badly hurting the stock market, while geopolitical mistrust is deepening,” he said. “Such a gloomy outlook for economic growth offers the perfect backdrop for further gains in gold.”

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BY Neils Christensen

President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war is taking its toll on risk assets, and gold continues to shine as a safe-haven asset and an alternative global currency.

Not only is gold beating the S&P 500 as Trump levies significant tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, but it’s also outperforming Bitcoin, which saw a sharp drop over the weekend.

Bitcoin has been struggling since hitting new all-time highs above $100,000 per token last month. On Sunday, as equity markets were starting a new trading week, the leading cryptocurrency dropped to a low of $91,530 per token. Although Bitcoin has managed to bounce off its overnight lows, it remains in negative territory at $95,135 per token, down 2.6% on the day. Bitcoin is down 13% from its all-time highs seen just two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, gold prices experienced some modest selling pressure overnight as they tested support around $2,800 an ounce. However, prices have recovered ahead of the North American open. As of 8:45 a.m. ET, April gold futures were trading at $2,847.50 an ounce.

Many analysts expect gold prices to remain in a solid uptrend, even as they face increasing volatility due to strong gains in the U.S. dollar. In a note Monday, Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said that gold should remain well supported as the “everything bubble” starts to deflate. While gold has managed to bounce off its lows, the S&P 500 remains in heavily negative territory, down 1.58% ahead of the open.

“Gold may be gaining momentum vs. the stock market and Bitcoin, with unfavorable macroeconomic implications. Up about 5% as of Jan. 31 since Bitcoin first closed above $100,000 on Dec. 6, the precious metal is beating both the crypto and the S&P 500,” McGlone said in his note.

McGlone added that gold is in a much better position than Bitcoin to attract new safe haven flows as sentiment in equity markets continues to sour.

“It could be a short-term spurt for the old-guard store of value, but four years of gold ETF outflows versus the biggest ETF launch in history for Bitcoin, strong competition from record-setting stocks, and high U.S. interest rates may suggest a pinnacle that the precious metal is sniffing out,” he said.

McGlone noted that Bitcoin could be facing a make-or-break moment as it underperforms gold, which could also have broader implications for global financial markets.

“A top prerequisite for continued appreciation of the highly speculative digital asset that’s been embraced by Trump might depend on the performance of the U.S. stock market. At 36x, the ounces of gold equal to a Bitcoin have stalled near the 2021 high,” he said. “Gold’s roughly 37% gain versus 27% for the S&P 500 year-over-year as of Jan. 31 may suggest that the metal is testing the limits of the great U.S. wealth-creation machine. Runaway U.S. government deficit spending buoys both gold and the stock market, but equities may have reached diminishing returns. Bitcoin/gold may be in a ‘must-go-up-or-else’ situation due to President Donald Trump’s endorsement and its implications for risk assets.”

By Neils Christensen

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By Jim Wyckoff

Gold prices are higher and have hit new record highs in midday U.S. trading Monday. Safe-haven demand is featured in the yellow metal amid keener marketplace uncertainty as the U.S. may soon implement tariffs against its major trading partners. April gold was last up $17.40 at $2,852.10. March silver was up $0.14 at $32.41.

Gold did back down from its daily high at mid-morning on news that U.S. trade tariffs against Mexico, which were set to go into effect Tuesday, have been delayed by one month so the U.S. and Mexico can negotiate more. Canada has vowed retaliation and as of this writing the new U.S. trade tariffs against that nation and against China were set to go into effect Tuesday.
The Canadian dollar overnight sank to its weakest level against the U.S. dollar since 2003.

U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday but up from daily lows on the news of delayed tariffs against Mexico.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher but down from its daily highs. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up after trading solidly higher earlier, and are now trading around $72.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 4.55%.

Technically, April gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,900.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $2,760.20. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $2,872.00 and then at $2,885.00. First support is seen at $2,822.10 and then at $2,800.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 9.5.

March silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of $33.33. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $32.92 and then at $33.00. Next support is seen at $32.00 and then at the overnight low of $31.61. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

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By Ernest Hoffman

Gold demand in China is showing signs of a strong rebound even as physical flows from the UK to the U.S. continue, while there are indications that solar demand for silver may be peaking, according to precious metals analysts at Heraeus.

In their latest precious metals update, the analysts noted that Chinese wholesalers appear to be anticipating a rise in consumer demand for gold.

“Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) withdrawals, a key indicator of wholesale and fabrication demand, typically rise in December and January as fabricators stock up for the Chinese New Year, which fell on 29 January this year,” they noted. “Consumer demand tends to also adhere to similar seasonality. Despite a strong start to 2024, cumulative withdrawals for the full year were among the lowest on record (excluding 2020), totalling 1,450 tonnes. This comes amid ongoing contractions in China’s jewellery industry, reflected in year-on-year revenue declines among major retailers such as Richemont, Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang. However, given that December 2024 withdrawals were up 23% month-on-month, January withdrawals could still align with the historical average of 190 tonnes (based on SGE data since 2016).”

The analysts said that SGE withdrawals tend to front-run consumer demand. “The uptick in December suggests that although on a lower level than in 2024, consumer demand in China could pick up in Q1 this year,” they wrote. “However, the performance of consumer demand is somewhat contingent on how the gold price performs. So far this year, gold has risen every week, including to a new all-time high in dollar terms last week. This could temper any positive impact from the Chinese New Year gifting cycle.”

Heraeus said the flow of gold from London to the United States also continued last week. “Gold shipments have been swiftly flowing into COMEX inventories this year and are approaching 30,000 koz, the highest since August 2022,” they said. “Since 1 January, gold inventories have grown by nearly 8,000 koz, including 1,720 koz additional ounces last week, as traders and institutions have raced to beat potential tariffs in the US. As London’s vaults see outflows, this has extended waiting times, usually measured in days, to as much as a month.”

Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank aligned with market expectations last week, with the former holding rates steady while the latter delivered a 25 basis point cut, while gold prices had fresh all-time highs late in the week. “However, US futures continue to trade at contango to spot gold and hit an all-time high of $2,853/oz on the March contract,” the analysts noted.

Gold prices continued their strong performance amid the ongoing tariff concerns, with spot gold reaching a new all-time high of $2,830.75 per ounce. Spot gold last traded at $2,818.00 per ounce for a gain of 0.72% on the session.

Turning to silver, Heraeus questioned whether China is capable of sustaining their torrid pace of solar growth.

“Total installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity in China reached 886.66 GW in 2024, marking a 46% year-on-year growth,” they wrote. “This addition of 277 GW exceeded industry forecasts and surpassed China’s own 2024 capacity estimate by 17 GW. However, the growth rate, while notable, fell short of 2023’s record 54% increase, and prior to that, 28% in 2021. This trend suggests that China’s peak PV capacity growth rate may have already occurred.”

The analysts noted that the last two years of growth for solar have coincided with record-low prices for PV modules driven by intense competition. “However, entering 2025, polysilicon producers (GCL and Tongwei) have agreed to limit production, while module makers (Jinko, JA Solar and Canadian Solar) have reached a minimum pricing consensus to restore profitability,” they said. “This could raise solar module prices, increasing project capital expenditure. Forecasts indicate that 232 moz of silver was used (source: The Silver Institute) in the 495 GW of PV applications in 2024 (source: PV magazine). If growth in the rate of installation is the same year-on-year, solar demand for silver could rise by another 39 moz in 2025, reaching a record 270 moz.”

Silver underperformed gold last week, though it rallied along with most precious metals. Silver prices are enjoying a strong showing to start the week, with spot silver last trading at $31.481 per ounce, an increase of 0.50% on the daily chart.

By Ernest Hoffman

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